Was 2023 as bad as we thought it would be?

Was 2023 as bad as we thought it would be?

By: Rachel Marsden

PARIS — At the end of 2022, key questions swirled about the year to come. We now have all the answers.

Would Ukraine win against Russia? Well, that depends on what one means by winning. To have actually defined that would have meant the imposition of measurable accountability rather than endless spending. So with no defined exit ramps, the conflict has turned into one giant road trip with backseat-riding civilians from Ukraine and the entire Western world constantly asking their leaders, “Are we there yet?”

There are backyard cats who have gained more territory this year than Ukraine did from Russia. It’s not nice to say that, though. Apparently it’s somehow considered more acceptable to just let the whole thing drag on at the expense of Ukrainian lives and Western economies.

By 2022, the establishment narrative on Ukraine had replaced their Covid mantras — and that continued through 2023. But by the end of 2023, there were less wild tales of Russian President Vladimir Putin being at death’s door, or of Ukraine defeating one of the world’s most advanced armies with some hand-me-down hardware. But now, wishful thinking has been violently mugged by realities like elected representatives feeling the pressure from constituents to put their foot down on the firehose of cash for Ukraine, a frozen battlefront, Ukrainian military recruitment challenges, mounting economic challenges for Kyiv’s Western benefactors, and a major new flashpoint in the Middle East.

Just like Covid quietly just eventually fell off the radar, Ukraine is on the verge of the same fate as 2023 draws to a close. Making matters worse for those most invested is the fact that Russia still seems to be humming along with little to no evidence that it’s on the verge of suffering the kind of collapse that Western sanctions had promised. Instead, it’s Westerners who have continued to pay the price with exacerbated inflation from economic deregulation while those responsible fixated on Ukraine.

Speaking of which, as 2022 ended, Europe was well on its way to vassal status, having sanctioned its own Russian energy supply into oblivion (before it was mysteriously blown up with the Nord Stream pipeline attack). That dependence has only increased this year, with the bloc now massively dependent on much pricier American liquified natural gas as a substitute.

Prospects don’t look much better for the next year, either. European officials have recently been patting themselves on the back because they didn’t run out of gas and have managed to stock up on enough fuel for a rainy (or rather, icy) day. What they don’t like to talk about is how their own idiotic sanctions just made their purchase of Russian fuel more expensive and complex, but not nonexistent. Europe traded Russian pipeline gas for more expensive Russian liquified natural gas, up by 40 percent from pre-conflict levels, watchdog Global Witness reported in August.

The Western-led G7 price cap on Russian oil was also a bust. It just means that Russia sells to other non-cap participant countries now, who then sell it back to members of the Price Cap Dunce Club. Not like Steve Mnuchin, former U.S. President Donald Trump’s onetime treasury secretary, who didn’t warn them all beforehand, calling a price cap “ the most ridiculous idea I’ve ever heard.”

A year ago, the EU was America’s loyal “ride or die” in this new global reorientation. That’s clearly still the case — even to the detriment of EU citizens, which has arguably fueled an anti-establishment populist electoral surge.

One big question was what would happen to the EU’s relationship with China — its largest trading partner. The bloc ended the year the same way that it began — proving that it’s just as ideologically driven to its own detriment. While even the US has begun moving in the direction of detente with China — at least publicly — the EU apparently didn’t get the memo. Its leaders went to Beijing in December and were still lecturing China on one hand about the usual menu of Western gripes, while at the same time promoting trade. Chinese President Xi Jinping responded by just telling the same people who constantly gripe about everyone else’s foreign interference to maybe tone down their own when it comes to China.

So it seems like he’s trying to just keep the EU-China trade train on the rails despite the nonstop shrills yelling in his ear. So no divorce this year. But let’s just say that a lot of marriage counseling is needed.

At the end of 2022, it remained to be seen how the countries of the “global south” — from Latin America and the Middle East to Africa — would react in the East-West standoff. What’s now clear is that they’re gravitating toward the multipolarity promoted by China and Russia. African countries in 2023 even kicked out French troops after undergoing military coups right under the noses of stationed Western troops who were supposed to be there to help with security and stabilization (but clearly had other priorities).

In 2024, watch for the East-West ideological rivalry to extend even further globally as the big bang of the new multipolar world order gives rise to a constellation of flashpoints.